نشریه تحلیل های اقتصادی توسعه ایران
سال هفتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 19، بهار و تابستان 1398)

This paper aims to assess and compare the effects of urbanization on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission between selected oil-based and non-oil countries by considering three theories of "environmental change into urban space", "urban density" and "ecological modernization theory". Therefore, a balanced panel model is estimated for 20 countries during 1995-2011. Results indicate that the effect of urbanization on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in both groups are positive and significant. The effects of urbanization on energy consumption are as much as 1.65 and 0.67, for non-oil group and oil-exporting countries, respectively. In addition, the magnitudes of effects of urbanization on carbon dioxide emission are 0.27 for oil exporting countries and 0.12 for other countries. The difference in the coefficients of effects of urbanization on carbon dioxide emission confirms the ecological modernization theory

This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between institutions and the resource curse in selected Middle East and North African countries, considering the central role of rent leverage on deepening the effect of institutional ineffectiveness on resource curse. There are various approaches to explain and investigate the resource curse, so that the research literature on this subject is widespread and expansive. Meanwhile, the institutional analysis approach has the advantage of being comprehensive and capable of providing comparisons among the cases under study, which is why the present study benefits from this approach. Quantitative methodology of the study is based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The findings reveal that, besides the role of institutions in the emergence of resource curse in the selected countries, a high percentage of inefficiency is due to the continued weakness of the institutions, because of rent leverage. Hence, these countries need institutional reforms in order to increase the efficiency and to get rid of the resource curse.

Valid estimates of price elasticity of energy demand lead to a better understanding of the economic, environmental and distributive impacts of energy price changes, and enable policymakers to make efficient energy management decisions. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of pricing policies for the modification of energy consumption patterns among Iran’s provinces. In this regard, price elasticities of energy demand ‎are estimated for selected energy carriers and total energy price index during 2000-2015. For this purpose, a dynamic panel model is used and the price elasticities of energy demand are estimated by Arellano-Bover (1995) and Blundell-Bond (1998) approaches. When total energy price index is applied in the model, the results show that the short-run and long-term price elasticities of energy demand are -0.038 and -0.567 on average, respectively. However, regarding energy carriers, the highest price elasticities of the aggregate energy demand belong to electricity and gasoline, respectively. The effect of climate change (as a proxy for heating and cooling needs) on energy demand is significant, and the average climate elasticity of energy demand is 0.15 in the short run and 2.30 in the long run. Since price elasticity of energy demand is less than one, and its climate elasticity is greater than one in the long run, non-tariff policies are proposed for energy conservation in the country.

The main objective of this study is to evaluate and evaluate the total productivity growth of the production factors at the level of economic sectors in Iran using the data-output approach at the national level. In this approach, the total productivity of the factors decomposes into the productivity of labor inputs, capital, and intermediate production. For this purpose, the data of two data-output tables related to the years 2001 and 2011, and the employment statistics of Iran's Central Statistical Office and the capital stock of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, have been compiled at the level of eight major economic sectors for constant aggregation. The results show that in the factor productivity, the electricity, water and gas sector has the highest productivity of intermediary and capital, and the mining sector has the highest labor productivity. The maximum amount of total factor productivity over the ten-year period is related to the mining sector and the least is related to the transportation and warehousing and communications sectors. Also, the highest amount of productivity during the period related to labor productivity is related

The existence of spatial disequilibrium has been the main concern of planners, analysts and policy makers in Iran. One of key aspect of analyzing the issue is to consider the spatial dimensions of economic activities. To deal with the issue, two factors are taken into account: 1) the relationship between the spatial agglomeration and linkages of economic activities framework of the New Geography, and 2) the measurement of clusters as criteria of agglomeration in the multiregional input-output model. For this purpose, input-output table of nine regions covering 19 sectors for the year 2001 has been used in order to answer the question: Can the application of linkages in the terms of clusters highlights the spatial disequilibrium of intra- and inter-regional agglomeration of economic activities? Thus, totally eight sectors (agriculture, mining, coke and petroleum refining products, chemical, basic metals, water, electricity and gas, construction and services) for region 4 (provinces of Isfahan, Chahar Mahal Bakhtiari, Khuzestan and extra region) and region 6 (provinces of Tehran, Qom and Alborz) have been analyzed. The findings reveal that the spatial agglomeration of agriculture, coke and petroleum refining products and chemical sectors in region 4 are more important than in region 6, while the spatial agglomeration of services, construction and water, electricity and gas sectors are of high importance in region

Tourism is one of the sources of economic growth and sustainable employment in various countries, which accounts for a large share of global income. As one of the largest industries in the world, tourism plays an important role in the national economies. Identifying the economic factors affecting the entry of foreign tourists can help policymakers to improve or maintain the status quo. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the economic factors affecting demand for tourism in selected countries of the Middle East by spatial econometric panel data approach during the period of 1990-2016. The results indicate that exchange rate, per capita income and economic freedom have positive and significant effects on demand for tourism. In addition, the impact of spatial proximity on demand for tourism is significant among the countries under study. In other words, geographical distance is a major factor in demand for tourism.

One of the stylized facts of economics is the spread of the financial crisis to various sectors and the ensuing downturn. Thus, observing the financial sector and predicting its crises is an attractive topic among economists, policymakers and investors. For this purpose, financial condition indexes are used. In this regard, the present study develops a new index for the financial condition by using the principal component analysis (PCA) and combining eight financial variables. Then, using the constructed index and applying Markov Switching approach, the financial sector is divided into three situations of crisis, stability and boom over the period 1990:2 - 2017:1. Then, the probability of exposure to these situations in financial sector is calculated. The results show that the critical situation in the financial sector has a relatively low stability, so, with probability 0.93, the financial sector becomes stable in the next period. According to calculations, it is impossible to move from critical and volatile situation to boom. The boom in the financial sector has low stability as well. If the financial sector is in boom at period t, it will remain in the same position with probability 0.27 in the next period. With probability 0.59, the financial sector will experience stability, and with probability 0.14, it will be in crisis condition.

Economic growth is one of the most important issues in economics. Initially, physical factors such as labor and capital were considered for explaining economic growth; however, institutional factors such as economic freedom have also been taken into consideration over the past decades. Today, most economists, including institutionalists, focus on economic freedom. In this regard, this study aims to examine the impact of economic freedom on economic growth in two major economic regions of the world, i.e. Middle East and European Union, using an unbalanced panel data model over the period 2000-2017. This paper uses the GLS method to estimate the model. The results show that economic freedom has a positive impact on the economic growth in the Middle East and the European Union, but this effect is higher in the Middle East than the European Union. This finding reflects the important role of economic freedom in creating an appropriate space and context for promoting economic growth. Thus, Middle Eastern countries especially Iran should pay attention to economic freedom in order to achieve favorable and sustainable economic growth

The need for regional planning has attracted the attention of economic researchers and policy makers in the world and Iran in recent years. Hence, various methods have been proposed for the use of regional data by researchers and scholars. But, due to the lesser history of this type of planning and the different data for each country, the use of regional planning methods for another country needs to be adjusted appropriately with the data of country under study. In the present study, the input-output table of Fars province, using the FLQ method, based on the national input-output table of 2011, has been computed in 15 sectors defined by the Statistical Center of Iran. Then, the corrected Ghosh supply-driven matrix was used in order to calculate δ accurately, due to the inwardness of the regional input-output table. The results of this method help to improve the result and make it more logical.  Then, using the RAS method, the table extracted by the FLQ method is adjusted to replace the actual data of Fars province. After that, a modified method is proposed to resolve the RAS method defect. The results show that although the use of the FLQ-RAS method reduces the residuals, it does not necessarily modulate the matrix of domestic intermediate cost correctly. However, the use of the modified FLQ-RAS method, in addition to reduce the number of residuals, makes adjustments more acceptable

This paper aims to analyze spatial effects of the government health expenditure of labor on economic growth in 30 provinces of Iran during 2011-16. To this end, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond estimators are used. A dynamic panel data (DPD) model is also used to increase the accuracy of results. The Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is specified in the form of a Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model (SDPD), or the Generalized Spatial Generalized Method of Moments ‎ (SGMM), and is estimated by using GeoDA and Stata softwares. The results show that the estimated coefficient of lagged per capita income is negative and statistically significant in conventional econometric model, which confirms the conditional convergence hypothesis in Iran's provinces. The coefficients of labor and health expenditure variable are positive and significant in both models. Accordingly, if the health expenditure increases by one unit, the level of productivity of the workforce will rise and lead to an increase in gross domestic product. The life expectancy has a very small but significant effect on the per capita income of the provinces. The coefficient of the spatial coefficient of labor and health expenditure (W * health) is significantly different from zero. Thus, W * health has a positive and significant effect on per capita income and growth rates. The spatial lag coefficient of the dependent variable (rho) is negative and significant, which indicates negative spatial (proximity‎) effects on per capita income among provinces. The effect of education level of the workforce on the economic growth is positive and significant in different regions. Of variables with direct relations, the least impact devotes to the state budget and most impact belongs to health expenditure. The birth rate has no effect on the economic growth of the regions. Estimation of spatial model in addition to conventional form increases the validity of the results of panel data models

Investment is the main source of economic growth and development. Therefore, the study of investment attraction’ factors is one of the most important fields of study for economists. Identifying determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction can be useful for developing countries. This paper examines determinants of FDI in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 1980-2015. It uses a panel data model with random effects in order to separate country-specified differences. The results of estimations indicate that degree of openness, rate of return on investment, economic growth, human capital and broad money have significant and positive effects on FDI, but expenditure on research and development (R&D) and corruption are insignificant in explaining FDI.

This study aims to analyze determinants of military expenditure in Iran, using the neoclassical demand model. For this end, the latest available data is used for a period of 47 years ending 2017. This study evaluates the effect of macroeconomic variables such as per capita GDP, oil revenue, non-military expenditure, real exchange rate, democracy level, war and conflict on military expenditure using Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method. The results show that the oil revenue and non-military expenditure of government have positive and significant effects, and the per capita GDP variable has a negative effect on military expenditure. Democracy has a positive effect in the short run, and a negative impact on military spending in the long run. The real exchange rate has a negative impact in the short run, and a positive effect on the military expenditure in the long run. In addition, regional war as dummy variable has a positive and significant effect on military expenditure. Accordingly, the factors affecting military spending in Iran are not merely economic. Thus, political, strategic and even geographical conditions should be considered in order to assess the amount of military spending